Category: International

* How much longer can Secretary of State Rex Tillerson stay on board? T-Rex is a billionaire and a global player–with all of the attendant pride and ego. And there’s surely a limit on how long he can represent an administration that remains in perplexing, turbulence mode. To wit:

<He wanted the U.S. to stay in the Paris climate agreement.

<He wanted a more reasoned approach to Qatar–not a loud rebuke.

<He was reportedly incensed and embarrassed by the Oval Office quip session that resulted in the president passing along classified information to Russian envoys.

<He’s said to have received less-than-welcome, diplomatic blow-back from certain NATO allies and EU partners after unexpected, Trumpian pronouncements.

* Granted, all things Donald Trump and international terrorism tend to drain oxygen from the news cycles. But still it was surprising that more wasn’t made of South Korea–with its newly elected, willing-to-talk-to-North Korea president–deciding not to employ that new missile defense system proffered by the U.S. SK is hardly left unprotected, but not moving on the much-touted upgrade seems noteworthy–as well as a rationale for something approaching good news at the planet’s consummate flash point.

* “(Human rights is) something that’s very strong to him. It’s one of the reasons that he’s reviewing the Cuba policy.” That was what White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer said this week about what motivates the president when it comes to Cuba. But as we know, human rights is no deal breaker when it comes to authoritarian, Mideast monarchies that are pragmatic allies and buy billions in military equipment from U.S. contractors.

Speaking of Cuba, this Cold War-era anomaly should be, first and foremost, about the enlightened self interest of the U.S. Our citizens’ rights, our cooperative efforts regarding the environment and drug smuggling, our economic benefits and our hemispheric relationships are foremost priorities. As opposed to the selective, personal-vendetta self-interest of the politically-aggressive exile community that still exercises inordinate influence thanks to the preening patriotism and disingenuous complicity of Marco Rubio, Mario Diaz-Balart and the usual suspects.

* They may be the most telling eight words ever spoken. They are Manchester bomber Salman Abedi’s last words–in his goodbye call to his mother in Libya. “Please forgive me for anything I did wrong.”

“Forgive” the unassailably unforgiveable? “Wrong”? This isn’t forgetting your mother’s birthday. This isn’t writing a bad check. This is an unconscionably heinous, barbaric, evil act that disqualifies one from human classification. Wrong? This says chilling volumes about who and what the civilized world confronts.

* A little-known facet of Islamic terrorism: Sometimes there is a backup terrorist–with a remote detonator–involved. Just in case the sacrificial volunteer-terrorist chickens out. They sometimes do. Brutal. Not even the prospect of a 72-virgin consolation prize.

“Iran Decides Its Future” was the Tampa Bay Times headline chronicling the big (57 percent) win by incumbent Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. So, the Iranian electorate (74 percent of it, actually) has spoken, and the moderate (still a relative term) Rouhani will serve another 4-year term.

This is certainly better than the alternative–a win by the hard-liner Ebrahim Raisi–but the Rouhani victory is well shy of decisive. That will be the day Iranian citizens can vote on a supreme leader, such as the current one, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He’s the successor to Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the leader of the 1979 revolution. He’s also the one who still has final say on all the really important issues facing Iran–regardless of what the average Iranian thinks.

As someone who has spent some time in Iran, I would say this. Iran is not ISIS or North Korea: Iranians can be dealt with. They resent typecasting. They are Persians–not Arabs–and they speak Farsi–not Arabic.

They have a middle class, and they have affluent enclaves, such as north Tehran, where Western dress, DVDs and alcohol are well indulged behind closed doors. They have a university system that has more female students than male. And as opposed to some Middle Eastern countries, Islamic Studies is not the most popular major. They like the outside world and are enamored of consumer imports. And they are frustrated with high unemployment and low foreign investment.

But Rouhani can only do so much.

* Russian President Vladimir Putin has indicated that he would be willing to provide the U.S. Congress with a record of Donald Trump’s recent meeting with his envoys. But only if the transcript request came from the Trump Administration.

In other words, it won’t happen, but it did provide the Kremlin with an opportunity to sow some more Washington chaos and mock the sideshow masquerading as American governance these days.

* The convoluted and tragic mess that is Syria still looks unsolvable. One word: Kurdistan. At some point, it will happen–regardless of what contemporary Syria, Iraq and Turkey think.

*”Maggie May.” It’s no longer just a Rod Stewart classic. These days it’s also a British-press nickname for Prime Minister Theresa May. It’s a riff on her popularity–seen by some as comparable to that of former PM Margaret Thatcher in her heyday.

Nice to see massive public rallies in Paris–such as the one outside the Louvre on Sunday–for something other than shows of solidarity and defiance after a terrorist attack. The centrist Emmanuel Macron decisively won the French presidency, and France won by not choosing the far-right nationalist Marine Le Pen and not yielding to fear, scapegoating and narrow nationalism. The EU also won; a Frexit would have been cataclysmic.

Once the celebrations are over, reality will set in.

Macron’s En Marche Party is only a year old. He will have no party infrastructure as a new government is formed.

And the TV, print and internet folks will put his spouse, Brigitte Macron, squarely in its crosshairs. When you are a 30-something president with a 60-something wife who used to be your high school teacher, that’s media manna. Bon chance, President Macron.

I saw a pope in person once. It was the charisma-challenged Pope Paul VI, not the most popular pontiff. He was on a balcony, as scheduled, overlooking Vatican Square on a Sunday. I saw him clearly through binoculars. It counts.

But I never actually met a pope–let alone had my picture taken with one. Maybe that’s why I’m kind of resentful of all those famous folks who get these photo-ops with the pope. And then use them self-servingly.

Bill O’Reilly comes readily–and sleazily–to mind. Even if the Holy Father had heard his confession and called him out for a spin job that violated the eighth commandment.

And then there’s University of Michigan football coach Jim Harbaugh, looking for any venue advantage–including a leg up on Catholic recruits. But he did reciprocate–and gave the Pope a personalized winged UM helmet. He really did.

The point is this. Francis is the Pope. He’s special. He’s shouldn’t be a prop for those who can leverage a photo-op.

* It’s easy to be self-critical of our electorate after the presidential election. But we’re not alone in democratic incongruities. The recent French election, which will result in a runoff between far-right populist Marine Le Pen and centrist Emmanuel Macron, had an interesting aside to it–and, no, it had nothing to do with early exit polls in French Guiana or Guadeloupe.

National polls showed that one in three French voters were still undecided the day before voting. In other words, one in three still weren’t sure in an election to decide EU membership, the status of the French franc, immigrant security and what to do about the rise of fascism and double-digit unemployment. And a third of the electorate was undecided? Quelle domage.

* You know who we really, really miss on the world stage right now? No, not Barack Obama. Not Ronald Reagan. Mikhail Gorbachev. A man with global credibility who understands priorities, what’s at stake and what he can do about it–without engaging in brinkmanship.

* “The enemy of my enemy is my friend.” It’s a geopolitical axiom for the ages. And for a while, it didn’t look like Russia and the U.S. vs. ISIS would be an exception. Chalk it up to timing, Syrian subplots and egos to die for.

* Imagine, the global-power country that shares a border with North Korea doesn’t use all of its considerable influence to keep Kim Jong-Unhinged in line. China’s leverage amounts to economic survival for a country that prioritizes nukes over people. And how ironic that without China, a sovereign North Korea wouldn’t even exist today.

We also know China’s rationale for not moving against this criminal family regime.

It doesn’t want a destabilized North Korea pouring refugees across the border. Nor does it want a resultant united Korean peninsula aligned with the U.S. and its allies. But at a certain point, aren’t all such scenarios subordinate to the ultimate existential threat that is Pyongyang?

President Trump has reversed himself on currency-manipulation charges and wants reciprocity in the form of China reining in North Korea. But has Xi Jinping read “The Art of the Deal”?

* Amid all the un-nuanced, predictable posturing, Tweets included, about how to handle North Korea, the words of H.R. McMaster, the national security adviser, were the most reassuring. “It’s time for us to undertake all actions we can, short of a military option, to try to resolve this peacefully.” Don’t know if Michael Flynn wouldn’t have worded it like that.

* What sends a more troubling signal: an ongoing cycle of missile launches and nuclear tests, a parade of ICBMs or the sight of those goose-stepping female soldiers?

“Apology.” It can be the hardest word.

We routinely note its absence when politicians express “regret”–which shows a degree of honor, but don’t actually “apologize,” which can be perceived as weakness by partisan constituencies. It is what it is.

But it’s especially notable, if not regrettable, at the very highest levels. Recent Exhibit A’s: the unprecedented visits of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to the U.S.S. Arizona memorial in Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, last week and the visit by President Barack Obama to Hiroshima last May. They both spoke of repentance and condolences. But no “A” word was uttered.

War is war. We don’t apologize for them. We just fight them–and regret them. Some things never change, although that alone should be worth an apology.

* We all know about “Brexit,” even if all the implications remain less than clear. We know the frustrations that have been building across the European Union, notably its western democracies that are especially wary of open-border immigration and euro scenarios. Now there are fears of a “Frexit.” If Marine Le Pen, the National Front leader, should win the French presidency–and she’s now considered a serious candidate–she would make the case to lead France out of the EU and the euro currency.

Then what, given what just happened in Berlin and Angela Merkel’s increasingly tenuous hold on her chancellor position–“Gexit?”

* Speaking of Berlin, how ironic that the terrorist-truck murders happened at a market in front of the Kaiser Wilhelm Memorial Church. The church–actually it’s what remains of the ruined spire of a church bombed in World War II–is arguably the most moving peace memorial in the world. I’ve visited it twice–about 40 years apart. It says to all visitors: “This is what war does. Never again.”

Now this. We’re not playing by the same rules.