“Iran Decides Its Future” was the Tampa Bay Times headline chronicling the big (57 percent) win by incumbent Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. So, the Iranian electorate (74 percent of it, actually) has spoken, and the moderate (still a relative term) Rouhani will serve another 4-year term.
This is certainly better than the alternative–a win by the hard-liner Ebrahim Raisi–but the Rouhani victory is well shy of decisive. That will be the day Iranian citizens can vote on a supreme leader, such as the current one, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He’s the successor to Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the leader of the 1979 revolution. He’s also the one who still has final say on all the really important issues facing Iran–regardless of what the average Iranian thinks.
As someone who has spent some time in Iran, I would say this. Iran is not ISIS or North Korea: Iranians can be dealt with. They resent typecasting. They are Persians–not Arabs–and they speak Farsi–not Arabic.
They have a middle class, and they have affluent enclaves, such as north Tehran, where Western dress, DVDs and alcohol are well indulged behind closed doors. They have a university system that has more female students than male. And as opposed to some Middle Eastern countries, Islamic Studies is not the most popular major. They like the outside world and are enamored of consumer imports. And they are frustrated with high unemployment and low foreign investment.
But Rouhani can only do so much.