It’s likely come down to a zero-sum scenario for the Rays in their ongoing quest for a solution to bad attendance and an obsolete, poorly positioned facility. Make Tampa work or leave the market for good. Although there hasn’t been an MLB relocation in half a century (Montreal to Washington), that scenario still looms because the Rays’ attendance is still awful. As Nashville, Charlotte, Las Vegas and other sports-craving markets still know.
That’s the upshot of MLB telling the Rays and its would-be Montreal partners that the twin-cities “ExRays” plan–that’s been on the table for more than two years–is now kaput. It’s likely the Rays, although deeply disappointed and seemingly blindsided, had wished they hadn’t been strung along by MLB, which gave them permission–and implied approval–to explore the two-city plan. In retrospect, the Rays can understand the ultimate pushback. The untried concept wasn’t going over well with the players’ union—already embroiled in a lockout. Other variables range from TV and radio contracts and sponsors to corporate season-ticket support and territorial rights. And then a stadium with a retractable roof and a larger footprint will run the cost into 10 figures.
This looks a lot like square one. The Rays’ situation is unique. It’s in a regional market that is easy to misread. World class airport, major port, and ongoing revitalization of downtown Tampa. Tampa Bay, while no New York, Chicago or Los Angeles, is a major market, including TV. But it’s asymmetrical. The bay is a gulf between Pinellas and Hillsborough counties and no meaningful mass transit exists. The region has its share of regional corporate offices, but is headquarters challenged. Golf, fishing, boating, tennis and summers in the Carolinas can be more attractive than baseball. Many locals have allegiances elsewhere—as in Boston and New York.
The one variable the Rays can control after 2027: a new stadium in a new location. It has to be spot on, and the Rays have to ante up. And it has to be Tampa, the business and logistical hub of the Tampa Bay market, plus TIF (tax increment financing) money, hotel and car-rental taxes and light rail that also connects to Orlando. Without all the pieces, this Florida market—one ironically so successful with hockey–will bid adieu to one of the most successful on-field MLB franchises.