Vladimir Putin, as we well know, has long seen NATO expansion as encroachment that doubled down on the USSR’s implosion. United Soviet republics, Warsaw Pact members. How dated.
As for Ukrainian compromise, it’s beyond problematic when Putin wants to return to the Cold War, back when NATO’s members besides the U.S. were: Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal and the UK. Only this isn’t a who-blinks-first, nuclear-age confrontation over Luxembourg. It’s an ominous, tragic reminder of what can happen with a geopolitical authoritarian who wants a European reset and renewed relevance for the erstwhile USSR. The land-grabbing, feral-eyed, (bo)toxic Czar Putin is the worst-case perfect storm of Napoleon complex, KGB culture, autocratic values and historic revisionism.
What’s next as sanctions play out and cyber-attack scenarios ratchet? Nobody’s saying: “Yes, Ukraine, we want you now as our 31st member.” But President Joe Biden has made clear that “Putin has failed in his goal of dividing the West. NATO is as united and resolute as it’s ever been.”
Timing is everything.