The unique perspective and provocative opinions of Joe O’Neill
Dem Notes
“I’m voting for Joe because our democracy is at stake.”—Lin-Manuel Miranda.
“It is true I have never run for office on my own behalf, but I’ve run for office on behalf of others. If I were to decide to do it, there’s nothing about it that on its face would feel uncomfortable or unfamiliar.”—That’s Susan Rice, former national security adviser and ambassador to the UN, in response to those who cite the fact she has never run for—let alone held–elective office as problematic for a potential vice-presidential candidate.
Speaking of vice presidential scenarios, amid all the vetting, lobbying and pontificating, the most pragmatic question is still this: Who would be the person best qualified—and seen as best qualified–to succeed a President Biden after one term? It’s unlikely that an octogenarian incumbent would be back on top of the 2024 ticket.
The economy, of course, is always a critical element in presidential elections. Wall Street and Main Street, etc. But not all partisan political perceptions, as we well know, are grounded in facts. “Wall Street generally considers Republicans to be better for market returns but historically, that’s not true,” points out Paul Hickey, the co-founder of Bespoke Investment Group. “Democratic presidents have generally had better returns versus Republicans.” Indeed, the historical ledger shows that since 1900 the stock market has fared better—actually far better—under Democratic presidents, with a 6.7 percentannualized return for the Dow Jones industrial average compared with 3.5 percent under Republicans. For the record, it was 12.1 percent under Barack Obama.
“Their best maneuver is to act like they’re three points behind in Florida.”—Advice to the Biden campaign from Fernand Amandi, Miami-based Democratic strategist and pollster.
Reminder: In key battleground states, “late deciders” went heavily for Trump in 2016. Reminder: No let-up.
30 percent: percentage of Floridians who voted by mail in 2016 and 2018. During the 2020 presidential primary, it was 45 percent.
How ironic that for years Florida Republicans have championed vote-by-mail as an effective tool in the get-out-the-GOPster-vote effort. Now it raises fraud hackles.