Moody’s Weighs In

Florida may soon be better known for denying financial reality and deferring responsibility than promoting sunshine. The Florida Legislature is now synonymous with “parallel universe.”

 

Its legislators, led by the “no tax”-mantra GOP, tune out economists as easily as advocates for higher education, social services or wetlands protection. Reasonable revenue reform? Might as well be lobbying for an atheists’ license plate.

 

Most recently, however, Florida lawmakers had to turn a deaf ear in another direction – toward those who can’t be labeled politically partisan or priority skewed. Try Moody’s Investors Service.

 

Moody’s has looked askance at Florida because it found its financial stewardship foundering oxymoronically. It saw a state that was fixated on one-time income paying too big a portion of recurring expenses. It saw a state that lacked a plan for restoring reserves spent down to avoid an unconstitutional deficit. It saw a state that seemed to care more about slogans than solutions.

 

And then it did what bond-rating agencies do in such cases. It put Florida’s top-level Aa1 bond rating on a watchlist for a possible downgrade. One that could happen within 90 days.

 

The likely result, of course, would be Florida paying higher interest rates to borrow money. Which would mean many more millions of dollars the state doesn’t have. The Sunshine State’s perfect storm continues.  

State Legislature: “Gutless And Vision-Challenged”

However all of this shakes out in Tallahassee, including the specter of another less-than-special legislative session, this much seems assured: the Florida Legislature is a parallel universe. This state, which is obviously no longer in a mega growth mode, cries out for real revenue reform.

 

And yet it’s frustratingly apparent that the odds are better that a GOP-dominated body would rather work religiously on an anti-evolution bill or sectarian license plates than apply itself meaningfully to real-world priorities. Ironically, maybe a “God Help Us” plate would be all too appropriate.

 

While it’s understandable that many wax nostalgic for Gov. LeRoy Collins, no one should seek to perpetuate the sales-tax formula that dates to his era. Florida has a 10-figure budget deficit, one that will only be partly offset by the federal stimulus of $13.7 billion over three years.

 

And yet the “no-tax, yes-pander” crowd would rather consider up-front gambling money or under-the-radar-’til-the-last-minute, future oil-drilling dollars instead of equitable revenue reform. This is in addition, of course, to layoffs, service cuts, trust-fund raids, some fee hikes and more tobacco money – aka a voluntary tax.

 

Florida legislators continue to ignore the inadequate, antiquated, inequitable system that still countenances untaxed services, unwarranted sales tax exemptions and inexcusable inertia on untaxed Internet sales. Plus, the legislature remains chronically tolerant of corporate tax loopholes that shift income to lower-tax states and online travel companies that book hotel rooms without paying the full tourist tax.

 

Any wonder that Moody’s Investors Service has looked askance at Florida and put this state’s top-level Aa1 bond rating on a watchlist for a possible downgrade? The likely result of which, of course, would be Florida paying higher interest rates to borrow money. Which would translate, of course, into millions of dollars the state doesn’t have. And it could come within 90 days.

 

The Moody’s rationale: Florida is fixated on one-time income to pay too big a portion of recurring expenses. It lacks a strategy for restoring reserves spent down to avoid an unconstitutional deficit. Other than that, the Sunshine state is an avatar of financial accountability and foresight.

 

In effect, this state’s gutless, vision-challenged Legislature is telling Moody’s and the residents of Florida: “Nothing matters more than our self-serving, ideologically compromised, “no tax” mantra, and nobody matters more than certain, favored lobbyists.

 

“If we can help it — and you better believe we can — there won’t be any equity in taxation and subsequent revenue raising. Ever. It’s part of our birthright as Floridians. We’d rather gut services or drill, baby, drill. So, yeah, you can expect us to just nickel-and-dime-and-dollar higher education, health care, the Moffitt Cancer Center, Byrd Alzheimer Research Institute, the Ringling Museum of Art, Florida Forever, the Inland Protection Trust Fund, high school Advanced Placement courses, juvenile assessment centers, the guardian ad litem program and whatever else you politically puny, bleeding hearts think is so damn important.

 

“And don’t look for the ‘people’s governor’ for help. It’s not the Charlie Crist style. Besides, Jeb took the gubernatorial bully pulpit with him. Crist isn’t just ‘above the fray.’ He’s an empty suit preparing for that empty 2010 seat in the U.S. Senate. We don’t see much of him, whether we’re in or out of session. We hear he’s still waiting for insurance rates to ‘drop like a rock.’”

Sanchez Retrospective

Tampa’s Frank Sanchez, as we know, is President Obama’s nominee as undersecretary of commerce for international trade. Two years ago, Sanchez was a key cog in the Barack Obama campaign – both as a fundraiser and as an adviser on Latin American issues. Now, pending confirmation, Sanchez, 49, will be an administration insider with some clout.

 

Back in 2007, Sanchez and I sat down to discuss a range of positions that then-candidate Obama was formulating. A few excerpts:

 

*Trade: “Obama’s hardly for reversing globalization, but he doesn’t want to give lip service to labor issues and environmental concerns.”

 

*Latin America: “For starters, we need to re-engage with Latin America. Brazil and Chile come readily to mind. For the last six years we’ve ignored Latin America – much to our detriment.”

 

*Cuba: Sanchez underscored candidate Obama’s priority of reversing the travel-and-remittance restrictions on the estimated 1.5 million Cuban-Americans living in the U.S. Indeed, President Obama has already ordered that be done.

 

As to the (then 45-year-old) economic embargo, Sanchez said Obama was not inclined to rush into any bold initiatives – preferring to use the embargo as “leverage” for changes on the island. The operative word was “incremental,” emphasized Sanchez. Do not, he stressed, expect a diplomatic stroke that would geopolitically “turn on a dime.”

Ethnocentrism In Context

Remember when you were in college and you learned the term “ethnocentric?”  As in, the belief in the superiority of one’s own ethnic group. The corollary was “don’t be judgmental. Cultures are neither good nor bad. They’re just different and, well, cultural. Don’t judge them by your (usually skewed Western) standards.”

 

And then along came folks who used rattlesnakes in their religious services. Or tribes who engaged in genital mutilation. And, for all too long, anything Taliban. Pick an abomination. Most recently, it was the couple who were executed in southwestern Afghanistan for trying to elope.

 

Ethnocentrism. There’s a reason why it lives on.

Iranian Intrigue

It certainly seems an outrage that Roxana Saveri, the journalist with dual American-Iranian citizenship, is still jailed in Iran on spying charges. Some observers think she is the victim of internal Iranian politics and will eventually be used as a leverage pawn in Iranian-American relations.

 

President Obama has said he is “gravely concerned” about Saberi’s safety and well being and was confident she wasn’t involved in espionage. Notably not yet commenting officially: CIA director Leon Panetta.

Al-Qaida Strategy?

Accidental Guerrilla, a book by Australian counterinsurgency expert David Kilcullen, contains at least one reference that won’t be appreciated by keepers of the George W. Bush legacy.

 

The bedrock of that legacy is that the Bush Administration protected America, say what you will about methodology, after the 9/11 attacks. There were no more attacks on the American homeland.  How’s that for a bottom line?

 

According to Kilcullen, Osama bin Laden has given, not surprisingly, a contrarian rationale for backing away from future assaults on American soil. Kilcullen quotes this (2004) statement by bin Laden: “All we have to do is send two mujahedeen to the furthest point east to raise a cloth on which is written al-Qaida, in order to make the (U.S.) generals race there to cause America to suffer human, economic and political losses…so we are continuing this policy of bleeding America to the point of bankruptcy.”

 

Kilcullen, ironically, was so well regarded by the Bush Administration that he was asked to give a briefing on Afghanistan to aides of both Barack Obama and John McCain.

 

What Kilcullen didn’t say: The Bush Administration’s legacy is already seen by many as this: After 9/11 the U.S. owned the moral high ground. With the poorly rationalized, ineptly planned invasion (not liberation) and subsequent occupation of Iraq, that moral high ground turned into a geopolitical sinkhole.

Legislature’s Revenue Roulette

Unless something notably dramatic happens in the next few days, the Florida Legislature will have given dereliction of duty a bad name. Real revenue-raising reform will have been shelved. The sales tax formula that worked well enough in the Leroy Collins era will remain alive and, well, grossly inadequate for a state no longer in a mega-growth mode.

So, instead of pitching those no-tax, yes-pander blinders, Florida’s legislators will have again ignored the merits of overhauling a system that countenances untaxed services,  unwarranted sales tax exemptions and unbelievable inertia on untaxed Internet sales. Plus chronic toleration of corporate tax loopholes that shift income to lower-tax states, online travel companies that book hotel rooms without paying the full tourist tax and state employees that abuse the Florida Retirement System’s double-dipping provision.

It’s obscene that in the absence of revenue raising beyond trust-fund raids, some fee hikes, and tobacco and gambling taxes, Florida seems content to keep holding critical services and key institutions in abeyance, if not hostage. The gutless, vision-challenged Legislature is saying, in effect, to the residents of Florida: “Certain lobbyists matter more than you. Of course, we’re not about to get serious about equity in taxation and subsequent revenue raising. Frankly, we’d rather live in our elected-official, parallel universe and just nickel-and-dime-and-dollar the Moffitt Cancer Center, Byrd Alzheimer Research Institute, higher education, Florida Forever, the Ringling Museum of Art, high school advanced placement courses, health care, juvenile assessment centers, the guardian ad litem program and whatever else you politically puny, bleeding hearts think is important.”

Fed’s Megahed-ache

What to make of the seemingly vindictive, all-but-double-jeopardizing re-arrest of Youssef Megahed, 23, earlier this month? Three days after the former USF student was found not guilty of explosives possession he was arrested again, this time by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents. A deportation hearing is still pending.

The rationale for the feds’ immigration charges surely seems like legal vendetta. Upon further scrutiny, however, it doesn’t seem that nuanced. Appears more like a legal system temper tantrum. In effect:

“We have a 2 ½ -week trial with bunches of witnesses and more than 100 pieces of evidence. This is after this guy’s USF buddy, Ahmed Mohamed, pleads guilty to providing material support to terrorists and gets 15 years in a plea deal. But Megahed? He was just cruising aimlessly and cluelessly in South Carolina with his Muslim pal, the  convicted terrorist wannabe? And they buy it? You gotta be kidding. Let’s go the civil route this time. He’s over at Wal-Mart. ICE him.”

“Conventional Wisdom”

The 2008 presidential election was not the best of times for America’s pundit class. Among the media mis-reads: Hillary Clinton was a “shoo-in” for the Democratic nomination, and the GOP nominee would surely be either Rudy Giuliani or Mitt Romney. So reflected Susan MacManus in a recent talk to the Tiger Bay Club of Tampa.

Clinton was hurt by her caucus losses — which are demographically skewed against the old, the infirm, shift workers, single parents and the military — and, especially, the change in the primary calendar, noted MacManus. The media, underscored the USF professor, didn’t foresee how critical the move-up by Florida would turn out to be.

“Florida going early probably cost Hillary the presidency,” said MacManus. Clinton would have won Florida “big” and “won Super Tuesday.”

Ultimate Lightning Lay-Off

It’s already been a busy off-season for the Tampa Bay Lightning, who had an awful on-season. Through three days of layoffs, Lightning owner OK Hockey let go about two dozen employees as part of its “restructuring.” Among those laid off: David Cole, director of fan development, Jay Preble, media relations specialist, and Matt Hitchcock, AKA “ThunderBug.”

Too bad those staying include those responsible for hiring Barry Melrose and trading Dan Boyle.