Election Dynamics

*To those African-Americans who criticized the Clinton campaign for not reaching out more aggressively and to those reluctant millennials who didn’t see enough authenticity in the “lesser of two evils”: Grow up. It’s about doing your homework so you fully understand what’s at stake–economically, societally and geopolitically–for your country. That’s why you turn out even if the outreach were short-armed. Even if neither candidate viscerally connected.

And don’t ever again equate Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Clinton had off-putting baggage; Trump had his own carousel. This wasn’t Benito Mussolini vs. Al Capone. It wasn’t Joe Stalin vs. Joe Mengele. It was America or Amerika.

* Isn’t “Souls to the polls,” often an effective get-out-the-vote tactic, also a separation-of-church-and-state loophole?

* A couple of days before the election, the union representing the state’s professional firefighters withdrew its endorsement of the utility-backed Trojan Horse that was Amendment 1. The Florida Professional Firefighters demanded that TV ads featuring firefighters be pulled.

One obvious question: It took this long–after half the state had already voted–to determine that the blatantly misleading, special-interest amendment was something the FPF couldn’t endorse?

Historic Election Trumped By Campaign Reality

President-Elect Hillary Clinton.

It remains, despite epic distractions, snapshot polling and a media mosh pit, the more likely scenario on Nov. 8.

Yes, there were Shirley Chisholm and Margaret Chase Smith and others. But no one with this stature and experience. Not even close. History now beckons. From suffragettes to a woman president of the United States. If ever a contemporary use of “awesome” were appropriate, this is it.

And yet.

This is not the historic sequel–following the election of an African-American president–that it should be. This is more sordid survival and Manichean struggle than feel-good history.

Imagine, the realization that America had finally evolved to the point that it could elect its first female leader of the free world. But also imagine that such history would be, frankly, overshadowed by personal back story, bar-stool quips, degrading campaign dynamics and geopolitical-and-trade anxiety.

Bill Clinton baggage, private email servergate, WikiLeaks subplots, Russian meddling and the implausible, unconscionable candidacy of Donald “Lock Her Up” Trump have relegated history-making to less than a parallel story line. Gasps of bullet-dodging relief overriding celebrations of barrier-breaking victory. Exhale to the new chief.

American exceptionalism.

It wasn’t supposed to evolve this way.

“Rigging” Accusations

How ironic.

Amid all the self-serving, Trumpian bluster about voter fraud and media conspiracies, it would seem conspiracists could have a field day scrutinizing the besieged Clinton campaign. They could point to de facto Trump-Putin or Trump-Assange tickets. They could wonder whether WikiLeaks solicits stolen emails from anybody else to the detriment of any other superpower presidential candidate.

And they could ponder FBI Director James Comey’s decision to notify Congress that the bureau has emails from the computer of disgraced former Democratic Congressman Anthony Weiner, the estranged husband of Hillary Clinton’s uber confidante, Huma Abedin. Word is some of the messages include correspondence associated with Clinton and Abedin.

Word also is that the Bureau wasn’t sure what it actually had, but first things first, speculate conspiracists, the obvious priority was getting it into the public arena with only a few days before the election. And if nothing proves indictable, at least you’ve put emails back into the news cycle and made the unsavory association among Clinton, Abedin and the sexting Carlos Danger.

The Clinton campaign was not the only one that felt blindsided and disturbed. The Department of Justice–starting with Attorney General Loretta Lynch–felt the same. It’s beyond odd for the Justice Department and the FBI to not be on the same page on such a consequential matter. But it would fit the scenario of conspiracists, who are already studying up on the Hatch Act, which prohibits partisan politicking by government employees.

Did Wallace Presage Trump?

The perfect complement to this presidential election has been a copy of “Whistlestop” by John Dickerson, the moderator of CBS’s Face the Nation. While the historic pairing of the first woman nominee and an outrageously unqualified and unhinged opponent has no precedent, per se, we are reminded that scandals, scoundrels and partisan media are nothing new. A good read.

But one election eerily and easily resonates. It was 1968 when Alabama Gov. George Wallace ran as the American Independent Party candidate, and he was on the ballot in every state. He would get 10 million votes, 23 percent of the total, and 46 electoral votes from five (southern) states. He didn’t just run against Richard Nixon and Hubert Humphrey. He ran against race rioters, big government, the “left-wing press,” communism, against elitism, school-busing–and in support of “states’ rights,” law and order and those frustrated and fed up with the status quo.

His populist appeal was underscored by his ability to “tell it like it is.” His campaign rallies, accompanied by a country music band and dotted with tiny Confederate flags, were more like red-meat rhetoric, concert tours. John Birchers, conspiracists and thinly-veiled racists were among those lured by a racial dog whistle and the Wallace mantra: “Stand Up for America.” Typical signage included: “News Media Unfair,” “Law and Wallace” and “Give America back to the people, vote Wallace.”

Wallace ranted and railed against anarchists and criminal coddling. “If policemen could run this country for about two years, they’d straighten it out,” he said. A Los Angeles Times editorial characterized his appeal as one meant to “play upon the fears, frustrations and bigotry of the discontented and the ignorant.”

And when the Gallup Poll had him trailing with high unfavorables, he responded in a fashion we’ve become all too familiar with today. “They lie when they poll,” he said. “They are trying to forge public opinion in the country, and professional polls are owned by Eastern monied interests, and they lie. They’re trying to rig an election.”

Who knew what George Wallace had presaged?

Political Potpourri

* Imagine, one last chance in front of a mega TV audience for a presidential game-changer and the biggest media takeaway is the losing candidate not promising to honor the result? But Donald Trump “will keep you in suspense.” In other words, the reality-TV campaign is now in final, all-but-official, countdown-to-the-Trump Network mode.

* Actually, the last chance for Trump to share a forum with Hillary Clinton was the recent Alfred E. Smith Memorial Foundation charity dinner in New York. They were seated with only Cardinal Timothy Dolan between them. They’ve been holding these white-tie, Catholic-charity affairs for more than half a century–and the formula doesn’t change. Political levity, especially the self-deprecating variety, is always the centerpiece.

Once again, Trump was ill-prepared. He had a “pardon me” line that he attributed to Clinton in a crowded dais scene that worked–and then he reverted to being Trump. As in: “Here she is in public pretending not to hate Catholics.” Winces. Boos. Another day at the orifice.

* Take-no-prisoners bombast aside, the Trump campaign’s chances continue to erode as Nov. 8 approaches. Even his head cheerleader, campaign manager Kellyanne Conway, sounds almost grounded. “We are behind,” acknowledged Conway. “She has some advantages. We’re not giving up. We know we can win this.” In Trumpian terms, this approaches concession.

* Then again, perhaps Conway is holding out hope over data recently released by the Cook Political Report. According to Cook, there were 47 million eligible white voters without a college degree who did not vote in 2012.

* Certain folks are going to take umbrage over this. Obviously, I don’t care.

It’s the consultant class, specifically those who generically help political candidates because that’s what they do. They have a professional skill set. They know media; they know spin; they know demographics; they know logistics; they know marketing. They can help a client. They hire out. We get it.

Ideology isn’t necessarily the foremost priority. We get that too.

But there are clients–and then there are existential threats with national as well as global implications.

So when you are, say, a Roger Ailes or a Kellyanne Conway, you’re also a whore. When you aid and abet a cause that is not in the best interest of your country, you are that–at best.

Careerists such as Conway, who make the rounds of political talk shows, are part of an insiders’ fraternity. They all know each other regardless of tribe. It’s all synergistically part of media self interest that unconscionably now happens to traffic in one of the most meaningful elections in history. Shame.

* Marco Rubio knows he has to defuse the issue that he just might not serve out his 6-year term if re-elected to his Senate seat. After all, somebody has to run against an incumbent President Clinton in 2020, and he is not lacking for name recognition, charisma or ambition.

So, how–in that debate against Rep. Patrick Murphy–could he guarantee he will stay in office, one that he has demeaned in the past? Well, by just flat out saying it–but also including an unassailable qualifier.

“… I am running for the U.S. Senate,” promised Rubio. “I’m going to serve six years, God willing.” In other words, if Rubio opts out early–it’s only because God must have willed it so. For emphasis, he rolled out his “God willing” caveat two more times. Maybe that impressed evangelicals who associate the Deity with Tea Party priorities.

* Doesn’t it speak volumes when the Miami Herald endorses Murphy and not Rubio. Ellos saben mejor.

* This just in. A major newspaper has just endorsed Trump. Could be a media break-through. It’s the Las Vegas Review-Journal. It’s owned by casino mogul and Trump supporter Sheldon Adelson. Never mind.

* We knew Bobby Bowden was a Republican. But supporting Donald Trump? Guard that statue.

* “The president is my opponent–not my enemy.”–Sen. Bob Dole, in referring to Bill Clinton in 1996. That was then; this is not.

Gore And Nixon: No Model For Trump

Al Gore and Richard Nixon don’t have much in common beyond having served as vice presidents. Except for this easily overlooked historical note. Both were involved in presidential races that were closely contested–with results marked by controversy and intimations of ignominy.

Gore, of course, won the 2000 popular vote but lost in the Electoral College when a Supreme Court decision conceded Florida to George W. Bush by less than 600 votes.

Nixon lost a popular-vote squeaker in 1960 to John F. Kennedy by a little more than 100,000. Percentage wise, it was 49.7-49.5. Nixon won 26 states to Kennedy’s 22. It had been the narrowest presidential-election margin in nearly half a century.

When the 2000 and 1960 elections were over, the losers had to make a call–besides a concession formality. They had to decide whether to appeal. They had their reasons–and their determined, emotional advocates.

Florida, of course, had featured the “hanging chads” debacle that has become part of political lore. Gore had topped his opponent at the national ballot box, but came up short in the Supreme Court. He didn’t want to risk “partisan rancor” that would have ill-served a country divided politically. No appeal.

For Nixon, it had come down to Illinois and Texas, the difference-makers in the Electoral College. Kennedy won Illinois by 0.19 percent, Texas by 2 percent. Nixon’s partisans saw conspiracy in the Dailey Machine of Chicago and Cook County as well as the cronyism and corruption in Texas on behalf of “Landslide” Lyndon Johnson. Nixon was also concerned about divisiveness scenarios and took one for the team. No appeal.

Both did the country-first, honorable thing–however naive that sounds right now–even though campaign insiders pushed for vindication and victory.

Contrast that with what could happen in a post Clinton-Trump America.

A Trump presidency is unconscionable, if not unimaginable. But by most accounts, unlikely. But a Clinton presidency likely comes with this grim reality. A runner-up, soundly-defeated Trump would not be a dodged bullet.

The chaos candidate would not reprise Nixon and Gore by showing some class and taking one for his country to avoid a societal schism.

* Not when his incendiary rant-filled campaign is fueled by scapegoating–using economic frustrations to ignite ethnic animus.

* Not when his fan base is one that ranges from Duck Dynasty followers and evangelical hypocrites to chronic Hillary haters and spineless GOPster pols.

* Not when the nominee regales in polarizing, conspiratorial rhetoric that is anathema to any kind of compromise and national healing.

* Not when he has already equated a loss with a rigged election. This serves to delegitimize the results–as well as provide a pre-packaged excuse for being a loser.

* Not when he has committed to “locking up” his opponent as if America were some authoritarian banana republic.

* Not when his narcissistic, misogynistic character prioritizes his own celebrity over the public good.

* Not when there’s no good reason to expect that Trump, ranting about global cabals, won’t keep the rabble frothing as it vents its frustrations by continuing to channel its under-informed, over-indulged, pop-culture icon.

Imagine, a candidate to prompt Nixon nostalgia.

Campaign Trail Mix

* Whether it’s provided by WikiLeaks or a slaughter house, it’s still sausagemaking. Whether it’s John Podesta campaign scheming or Hillary Clinton acknowledging the public/personal dichotomy of elected officials, it’s all sausage-making. It’s not about character flaws–more like political process flaws.

Just as nobody wants to see the compromise process that leads to passed laws. Just as nobody wants to see the cutting-room floor in the news business. It’s the final product that matters much more than the sausage making. It is what it is. But we’re not exactly talking experience, intelligence and temperament here.

* It was ironic seeing Hillary Clinton and Al Gore campaigning in Miami. You didn’t see that surname combo on the hustings in 2000 when Bill Clinton was Gore’s presidential albatross. But now it’s all Dem hands on deck–from Barack and Michelle Obama to Joe Biden, erstwhile rival Bernie Sanders and ass-kicking populist Elizabeth Warren.

* Has it dawned yet on Republicans how it happened that it was their party–the one of  Limbaugh not Lincoln–that Donald Trump chose to pursue his ultimate ego-gratification goal? Call it political karma.

Town Hall Takeaways

* A debate to help determine the leader of the Free World: Too bad it’s more show than  showdown. Why not a chair for Hillary Clinton and a bar stool for the smirking Donald (“You’d be in jail.”) Trump. His unpresidential body language fit his celebrity-buffoon caricature, but the hulking, stalking style that had him intruding into the Clinton-response TV frame was downright creepy at times. And the sniffling and snorting was weird.

Remember how Al Gore was criticized for trying to upstage and intimidate George W. Bush in their 2000 debate by leaving his chair and sauntering over into Bush’s space while “W” answered a question? However highlighted over the years, it was a one-time, Candid Camera misstep–hardly a character extension.

* It takes two to have a debate. It takes one to have a show. When the accused pivots to ISIS beheadings 15 seconds into a robotic apology about being a sexual predator, you know the diversionary tactics have already kicked in.

* The bar is low, possibly subterranean, for Trump in debates. He dropped in “carried interest” and “Mosul” and got credit for strong moments.

* The intimate live audience, which included Bill Clinton accusers Paula Jones, Juanita Broaddrick and Kathleen Wiley, was largely comprised of “undecideds.” How, frankly, is that possible three weeks out from an election featuring the most polarizing pairing in the history of presidential races? Or maybe it’s a way of working your way into a network focus group or televised town hall.

* The debate format still needs work. An audible, wrap-it-up signal with, say, 15-seconds remaining for a response would be helpful. As would an automatic mic shut-off. A candidate shouldn’t be able to bully his way into extra time, especially when it’s likely to result in more bar stool samples aimed at the opponent, the moderators or the media in general.

* Whatever Trump does or doesn’t do in a debate–or anywhere anytime–will not change anything with his deplorable, “Lock her up!” base. Fortunately, that’s not enough to win an election–especially with Trump already underperforming with college-educated GOPsters, most notably women.

* Trump is Trump. But is nothing beneath Rudy Giuliani, who keeps doubling down on being Trump’s pimp?

Presidential Campaign Trailmix

* Wasn’t there a time when Republicans thought of themselves as the party of family values?

* Imagine, there’s a Bush still impacting the presidential race in its last three weeks–and it’s Billy Bush, Jeb’s cousin.

* When the presidential-campaign focus is not on something salacious and scandalous, the issue of future Supreme Court appointees is readily raised. Well it should. From Roe vs. Wade to Citizens United, a lot is at stake.

And here’s a prime example from back in the SCOTUS day. In 1935, the Supreme Court upheld the “whites only” Democratic primary in Texas. Nine years later, with an infusion of new justices, the court reversed that decision. In short, Supreme Court appointees matter big time. No exception this time on an 8-member Court.

* Yes, it’s a Kellyanne Conway cheap shot, but it’s spot-on funny–and it wasn’t delivered by a Clinton campaign staffer: “She looks like the last 10 minutes of prom.”

* It’s the longest of long shots, but if Mike Pence were to withdraw from his VP slot, here’s hoping it would open the way for a Trump-Scott or Trump-Bondi ticket. They all deserve each other–as well as future political oblivion. And Florida would be rid of one of them right away.

* How can it be that someone as politically pragmatic and savvy as Bill Clinton can still be a liability to Hillary Clinton on the stump? His recent “crazy system” comment regarding the Affordable Care Act was manna for Conway & Co. And recall he was a problematic presence for Hillary Clinton in 2008 against Barack Obama.

* Most Florida Republican leaders have expressed “outrage” over Donald Trump’s ongoing character revelations–that now include the prurient and predatory. But few are withdrawing support. That, to be sure, is outrageous.

* At the national level, contextually-principled House Speaker Paul Ryan has, in effect, declared: “Enough is enough. I can no longer defend the candidacy of Donald Trump. I will not campaign for him. But, no, I’m not withdrawing my endorsement. Get real.”

* A perverse benefit of being in traffic gridlock on I-275 North the other day was a panoramic view of both sides of the interstate. And there they were: two gigantic, complementary billboards promoting something called “Scream-A-Geddon, a horror theme park in Dade City. The actual wording: “Scream-A-Geddon: Scarier Than…” One depicted Donald Trump, the other, Hillary Clinton.

Two points. First, not funny, even for billboard humor. Second, it’s really unconscionable, whatever the context, whatever the party affiliation, to equate Trump and Clinton.

Candidate Version Of Jury Nullification

Some have called it the candidate version of jury nullification, which makes sense. Something explainable within our common frame of reference must account for Donald Trump’s ongoing viability as an unconscionably uninformed presidential candidate.

Think back to the O.J. Simpson trial. We now know that the Los Angeles jury figured Simpson was guilty–but another agenda took precedence. It was a rare opportunity to strike back at white establishment oppression–as manifested by police brutality to black residents. Rodney King was hardly an exception. It was a way of taking all those pent-up frustrations and degradations and finally finding a vehicle to express them. Take that. Simpson wasn’t “not guilty?” So what? His case provided the perfect-storm opportunity to vent.

Fast forward to now. If you want a vehicle to express how much you want your country back–because the global economy, the tech culture and alien demographics symbolized by immigrants and a black president have been conspiring against you and yours–you have it in a Trump candidacy. Pat Buchanan never looked so civil and moderate.

Sure, Trump isn’t “presidential” and he’s hardly a policy wonk and NATO is worried–but so what? Trump “tells it like it is,” and he also hates the establishment. So, crude, bigoted and beyond-simplistic, bumper-sticker language becomes a “politically incorrect” dog whistle to followers. That’s how a movement-meets-concert-tour presidential campaign happens.

Especially when the media can’t help doing what they do best–saturation coverage of a celebrity candidate who is great copy and an audience guarantor.

Then add just enough “Crooked Hillary”-hating independents, spineless GOPsters and clueless millennials to make this election alarmingly close.