The first thing we need to remind ourselves when discussing Cuba is that, as opposed to scenarios with other non-democracies, this one is personal. There are those among us who have lost everything.
Having said that, it is still unacceptable for a vendetta agenda to be the basis of foreign policy. That wasn’t the case for Germany or Japan or Vietnam. It isn’t for those who are more strategically relevant–and less democratic–than Cuba. Think Saudi Arabia, China and Russia. It’s hypocritical, counter-productive–and, yes, personal.
The second thing is that it is imperative to move forward with the diplomatic and economic thaw introduced by President Barack Obama. His initiatives are not a series of concessions to a dictatorship–but long-overdue, common-sense acts of enlightened self interest. The American perspective should be this: The one that stands to benefit big time from Cuban-American rapprochement is the U.S. Most notably, Florida and the Tampa Bay area. From TIA to Port Tampa Bay to transshipments facilitated by the expanded Panama Canal.
While the transition to a Trump Administration is obviously nothing to celebrate, including on the Cuban front, the combination of Trump narcissism and inherent prioritie$ could have an ironic upside. The incoming president, after all, is defined by his artistry in deal-making.
And timing, of course, is everything.
The most reviled Castro, Fidel, is now dead. His brother Raul, 85, will be stepping down about a year into the Trump Administration. The successor-in-waiting, Vice President Miguel Mario Díaz-Canel Bermúdez, 56, is from a different generation, a different family and a different–non-military–orientation. He’s the former minister of higher education.
Vice President Díaz-Canel is not exactly Joe Biden, of course, and nothing is guaranteed, including Díaz-Canel’s relationship with the military. But a non-Castro in charge of a Rube Goldberg economy with no Venezuelan subsidies, a dire need to attract investment and tourists and an antsy young demographic increasingly aware of what they still don’t have has possibilities.
It will take negotiating skill and domestic spin on both sides. If successful, credit will be parceled out to the leaders. It’s what fuels Trump. The ultimate accolade–the winner who cut a better deal than Obama, the winner who officially ended the last remnants of the Cold War era–would beckon. As would this rhetorical question: What matters more to a consummate 2017 deal maker–last-gasp exile- and co-opted-political pressure or corporate prioritie$?
Put it this way: If anti-communist Richard Nixon can open China after calling out Mao, why can’t uber capitalist Donald Trump further expand Cuban relations after blustering on Twitter about a better deal?
The Castro brothers, especially Fidel, have been their own worst enemies with cavalier anti-yanqui attitudes surfacing at all the wrong times. Hell, if you can’t get along with Jimmy Carter, you aren’t trying. And a string of U.S. presidential administrations were intimidated by the political hard ball played by the South Florida exile-community and their congressional lackeys.
Trump would not want to be part of an intimidation continuum. There’s nothing “great” about it.
Speaking of greatness, President Trump won’t be able to substantiate it without corroborating numbers. That includes jobs created by infrastructure projects, for example, but it can also mean Cuba-related, increased jobs and improved trade- and smuggler-count statistics that will notably benefit Florida, still the quintessential swing state.
As the Castro brothers literally leave the scene, face-saving scenarios become more viable. Cuban friends have called it the “biological solution.” It gives both sides maneuver room. We’ve already proven we can work with communist governments and autocracies of various stripes.
America and Cuba are in transition. Maybe the art of the deal–with both sides getting trophies for domestic consumption–trumps all scenarios. Let’s hope so. In fact, let’s keep hope alive.